Border Patrol arrests fell sharply in June to the
lowest level since February.
It could signal that President Donald Trump's
"zero-tolerance" policy to criminally prosecute every adult who
enters the country illegally is having a deterrent
effect.
But rising temperatures could also be a major
influence, discouraging people from walking in the scorching
and potentially lethal heat.
Border Patrol arrests fell sharply in June to the lowest level
since February, according to a US official, ending a streak of
four straight monthly increases.
The drop may reflect seasonal trends or it could signal that
President Donald Trump's "zero-tolerance" policy to criminally
prosecute every adult who enters the country illegally is having
a deterrent effect.
The agency made 34,057 arrests on the border with Mexico during
June, down 16 percent from 40,344 in May, according to the
official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the numbers
are not yet intended for public release. The June tally is
preliminary and subject to change.
Arrests were still more than double from 16,077 in June 2017, but
the sharp decline from spring could undercut the Trump
administration's narrative of a border in crisis.
Customs and Border Protection, which includes the Border Patrol,
declined to comment on the numbers, saying it doesn't discuss
them as a matter of policy until public release "to ensure
consistency and accuracy."
Trump has reportedly kept a close watch
over the monthly numbers, viewing them as a metric for how
successful his crackdown on illegal immigration has been.
Over the previous four months, Trump grew enraged by the steady
increases, and took out his frustrations on his Homeland Security
Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen.
Multiple reports surfaced throughout April and May saying Trump
has berated Nielsen in front of
colleagues and fellow cabinet members over the monthly arrest
numbers, even at one point prompting her to draft a resignation letter.
Deterrence or seasonal migration trends?
Central
American immigrants turn themselves in to U.S. Border Patrol
agents on February 22, 2018 near McAllen,
Texas.
Getty
The administration announced in early May that it was prosecuting
every illegal entry, including adults who came with their
children.
The separation of more than 2,000 children from their parent
sparked an international outcry and Trump reversed course on June
20, ordering that families should stay together.
Though Trump said that the separated families would be reunited,
the process has been bogged down in red tape and bureaucracy,
complicated by the fact that children were funneled into the care
of a separate government agency than their parents.
CBP Commissioner Kevin McAleenan told agents to temporarily stop
referring illegal entry arrests to the Justice Department for
prosecution if they involve parents unless they had a criminal
history or the child's welfare was in question. His edict came
"within hours" of Trump's directive to avoid splitting families.
McAleenan told reporters last week that border arrests were
trending lower in June but said he wouldn't provide numbers until
their public release in early July.
"I believe the focus on border enforcement has had an impact on
the crossings," McAleenan said.
Rising temperatures could also be a major influence, discouraging
people from walking in the scorching and potentially lethal heat
in much of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. Arrests
fell from May to June in four of the previous five years, last
year being the exception.
Still, the month-to-month percentage decline is notable. It fell
in the low single digits in 2014 amid a major surge in illegal
crossings and in 2015. Declines approached 20 percent in 2016 and
2013.
Border arrests — an imperfect gauge of illegal crossings — surged
during much of last year after falling dramatically in the early
months of the Trump administration.
The numbers do not reflect activity at official crossings. The
Border Patrol polices between ports of entry, not at them.
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